Get prepared...the end is near....?

[takza]

http://www.thecoast.ca/RealityBites/arc ... morial-day

Rubin: $100/barrel oil will return by Memorial Day

Atlantic Gateway concept "reflects yesterday's economy," says oil economist

Oil prices will reach $100/barrel by the end of this winter, and we'll see a return to $1.40/litre ($4/gallon in the US) gasoline prices by Memorial Day, says Jeff Rubin, formerly chief economist with CIBC World Markets and author of Why Your World is About to get a Whole Lot Smaller.

Rubin, who will be speaking to the Halifax Chamber of Commerce November 4, also casts doubt on the logic behind the Atlantic Gateway concept.

In his book, Rubin argues that the defining feature of the world economy is the price of oil. High oil prices caused the American financial meltdown, not the other way around, says Rubin, and high oil prices are sure to return once the recession is over.

As he explains it, the underlying issue is that we have either just reached, or are just about to reach, "peak oil"---the point where total oil production declines, no matter the price for oil. As a result, global trade will necessarily have to diminish, and we'll return to the local economies of the past.

Expect a serious rise next spring?

http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/educ ... ts/cl.html

http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/educ ... ts/hu.html

[splatterdog]

I sure hope you aren't walking around town with a sandwich board stating the title of this post. haha Take a break, have some fun, turn of the faux news...

I don't think you can blame everything on oil like this article states. It seems to me excessive/criminal greed at the top, and generally bad financial behaviour accross the board. If gas does go back to $4 with the current economy, nobody will be buying. Isn't this part of how prices magically got back to near normal the last year? You can only get away with charging what you want for so long.

But, what do i know.....

[Petros]

The current fluctuations in oil prices has nothing to do will supply shortages. Then current price of oil went up, and has gone again up recently, for one reason: the decline of the value of the US$. When the big spenders in congress raised the dept ceiling on their over spending in 2006, the value of $ fell (the more dept of the county, the less valuable the currency. Since oil is priced in US $, than the price of oil went up (since the value of the $ went down) triggering a chain of events that caused the current global recession. When the other countries currency were in even worse shape than the US$, the value of the dollar recovered somewhat (investors buy up US$ as a safe haven for their money), bringing the price of oil back down. But this years OUT OF CONTROL spending of our illustrious congress, tripling the dept, caused the value of the $ to sink again, causing the current rise in the price of oil.

With a strong $, the price of oil will come down. But we will not see a strong $ until congress stops overspending. That is like asking a skunk to stop stinking. I can not see it happening without cleaning out the house, the senant and the executive branch and filling it with finacially responcible law makers. Like that is going to happen anytime soon.

[takza]

Some people think that oil prices caused the financial meltdown...quite a few of the most recent recessions were preceded by high oil prices. I tend to agree.

Just from typical rises in consumer prices...gas will hit at least $4 in 10 years or so...some see $4 next year...by Labor Day. Result would be a double dip recession.

Bottom line? The big game has changed and anyone who thinks things will stay the same will be surprised. Peal oil and/or a major low in oil/energy prices is here...now. Global warming is here. Food shortages...refugees...wars....here and on the way.

The DENIERS are everywhere.

I follow this as a hobby...no big signboards yet.

Only so much any individual can do...

Americans are rather insulated by the dollar, some oil production, big military, borrowed money, and by a main stream media bent on perpetuating consumption and continual growth. The American Dream is about to or HAS run head on into the brick wall of peak energy/resources and global warming.

Wake up Amurica! The END IS NEAR....REPENT you fools...REPENT! ..........

[splatterdog]

Bottom line? The big game has changed and anyone who thinks things will stay the same will be surprised. Peal oil and/or a major low in oil/energy prices is here...now. Global warming is here. Food shortages...refugees...wars....here and on the way.

The DENIERS are everywhere.

I follow this as a hobby...no big signboards yet.

Only so much any individual can do...

Americans are rather insulated by the dollar, some oil production, big military, borrowed money, and by a main stream media bent on perpetuating consumption and continual growth. The American Dream is about to or HAS run head on into the brick wall of peak energy/resources and global warming.

Wake up Amurica! The END IS NEAR....REPENT you fools...REPENT! ..........

You forgot about people being insulated by their own ignorance. Mortgaged to the hilt, credit card(s) maxed out. Impossible loans given/taken by questionable borrowers by shady lenders. The list goes on and on. Maybe a slap in the face is what we needed.

I still don't know how giving billions to the high rollers that effed this up in the first place is supposed to help, other than exec bonuses. Also, is there no honor on wall street anymore? I thought they were supposed to go kamikazee when things got this bad. Or don't windows open on wall st. anymore? China would've hung these clowns. Not saying that's the answer. Just feeling a little unsympathetic for stuffed suits lately.

I certainly don't have the answers. I'm just a worker bee. My forte is cars and almost anything mechanical, people are freekin crazy. Cars alone have taught me that.

Maybe we should start a group collection here to purchase T4 Island. Count me in!

[takza]

The era of cheap energy is over?

http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/10/23 ... l?emc=eta1

A small but growing group of academics believe the latter is true, and they are out to prove it. These thinkers say that the neoclassical mantra of constant economic growth is ignoring the world's diminishing supply of energy at humanity's peril, failing to take account of the principle of net energy return on investment. They hope that a set of theories they call "biophysical economics" will improve upon neoclassical theory, or even replace it altogether.

But even this nascent field finds itself divided, as evidenced by the vigorous and candid back-and-forth debate last week over where to go next. One camp says its models prove the world is headed toward a dramatic economic collapse as energy scarcity takes hold, while another camp believes there is still time to turn the ship around. Still, all biophysical economists see only very bleak prospects for the future of modern civilization, putting a whole new spin on the phrase "the dismal science."


Central to their argument is an understanding that the survival of all living creatures is limited by the concept of energy return on investment (EROI): that any living thing or living societies can survive only so long as they are capable of getting more net energy from any activity than they expend during the performance of that activity.

For instance, if a squirrel burns energy eating nuts, those nuts had better give the squirrel more energy back then it expended, or the squirrel will inevitably die. It is a rule that lies at the core of studying animal and plant behavior, and human society should be looked at no differently, as even technologically complex societies are still governed by EROI.



The sharpest difference between biophysical economics and the more widely held "Chicago School" approach is that biophysical economists readily accept the peak oil hypothesis: that society is fast approaching the point where global oil production will peak and then steadily decline.

The United States is held as the prime example. Though the United States is still the world's third-largest producer of oil, its oil production stopped growing more than a decade ago and has flatlined or steadily fallen ever since. Other once-robust oil-producing countries have experienced similar production curves.

But the more important indicator, biophysical economists say, is the fact that the U.S. oil industry's energy return on investment has been steadily sliding since the beginning of the century.

Through analyzing historical production data, experts say the petroleum sector's EROI in this country was about 100-to-1 in 1930, meaning one had to burn approximately 1 barrel of oil's worth of energy to get 100 barrels out of the ground. By the 1990s, it is thought, that number slid to less than 36-to-1, and further down to 19-to-1 by 2006.

"If you go from using a 20-to-1 energy return fuel down to a 3-to-1 fuel, economic collapse is guaranteed," as nothing is left for other economic activity, said Nate Hagens, editor of the popular peak oil blog "The Oil Drum."

[splatterdog]

Here's a little musical interlude with subject material within your concerns takza. Our current problem is nothing new.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUdNWUfZ ... re=related

Peace.....

[takza]

It's nothing new in terms of the quality of human input...the point is that the degree of resource/biosphere depletion vs human numbers and consumption levels are at a new level....and there will be certain consequences.

The "old guard" will try to keep things on the same old track....as many continue to believe things will go.

Basically...the "theory" is that the series of "bubbles" blown...from the tech bubble to the recent housing bubble and now the debt bubble...were blown to cover up the essential facts of the above...resource/biosphere depletion vs human numbers and consumption levels. The NWO and job outsourcing also do and did the same...cover over this reality.

There will be the usual attempts to "make" things continue as they have...but they will necessarily fail to some extent. But the changes will be gradual and like watching paint dry...unless certain tipping points are hit...such as the recent market/economic drop. The main point being...that things stay the same due to big efforts to maintain a status quo.......until certain forces change the trend in a big way.

[takza]

Here is a good discussion of what MIGHT be on the way....

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50500

So far the financial media has largely ignored the potential impact of $100 oil on the global economy and equity markets despite much evidence from the 2008 price spike. Deutsche Banks analysts have decided that $80 oil will not have much effect on any global rebound but are studying what the impact of $100 oil might be.

USA Today notes that oil prices had increased by 76 percent so far this year before the latest jump and wonders whether this might not spoil the stock market rally.

[takza]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/je ... le1343977/

Whether we move goods by air, ship, rail or truck, the global economy runs on oil.

And soon that oil is going to cost more than we can afford. Long distance transoceanic trade is about to go the way of the gas-guzzling SUV. Both are relics of an age of cheap oil that no longer exists.

Oil prices are already trading at around $80 per barrel when the red ink hasn’t even dried yet on the deepest postwar recession in the largest oil-consuming economy in the world. If oil is trading at this level when world oil demand has actually fallen this year, where do you think oil prices will be when the world’s energy appetite recovers?

Everyone, from OPEC to the International Energy Agency to the US Department of Energy, now expects that to happen by early next year.

If so, you can expect to see the return of triple-digit oil prices by next spring. And that means that the armada of empty container ships anchored off Southeast Asia are likely to stay exactly where they are.

[terceldude]

http://www.thecoast.ca/RealityBites/arc ... morial-day

Rubin: $100/barrel oil will return by Memorial Day

Atlantic Gateway concept "reflects yesterday's economy," says oil economist

Oil prices will reach $100/barrel by the end of this winter, and we'll see a return to $1.40/litre ($4/gallon in the US) gasoline prices by Memorial Day, says Jeff Rubin, formerly chief economist with CIBC World Markets and author of Why Your World is About to get a Whole Lot Smaller.

Rubin, who will be speaking to the Halifax Chamber of Commerce November 4, also casts doubt on the logic behind the Atlantic Gateway concept.

In his book, Rubin argues that the defining feature of the world economy is the price of oil. High oil prices caused the American financial meltdown, not the other way around, says Rubin, and high oil prices are sure to return once the recession is over.

As he explains it, the underlying issue is that we have either just reached, or are just about to reach, "peak oil"---the point where total oil production declines, no matter the price for oil. As a result, global trade will necessarily have to diminish, and we'll return to the local economies of the past.

Expect a serious rise next spring?

http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/educ ... ts/cl.html

http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/educ ... ts/hu.html

I don't believe this crap! It's all a lie! They are probably making all this scheisse up to scare people or something! Plus this is too far ahead in the future to say anything completely accurate! Also, I do not intend to stop trading globally with mad people on say, eBay or Yahoo Japan Auctions or even on Amazon sites, including their Japanese site. Why, because, well on the Japanese sites they definitely sell very unique things and you have only one shot at getting them, then they're history, unless you happen to eventually find another which isn't so often. Me and Typrus are going to continue buying Tercel parts from Deutscher sellers regardless of whether this is actually true or not, but I certainly don't believe it's true, but for anyone who does, that's your choice but this is hippie crap and I hope to not hear anything else like this! I got my very unique AL25G Sprinter Carib car floor mats to think about putting in my Tercel 4wd. Peace out homies!

[takza]

Ask not for whom the bell tolls?

[splatterdog]

OK, how about this takza. Without copy and pasting, how are you/or would recommend getting prepared? Are you doing anything about it or just trying to perpetuate fear on the net? Maybe I should go ahead and stop paying all my bills and keeping the T4's rolling as it just doesn't matter anymore. Better work on that bucket list everybody.

Have a nice day

[takza]

OK, how about this takza. Without copy and pasting, how are you/or would recommend getting prepared? Are you doing anything about it or just trying to perpetuate fear on the net? Maybe I should go ahead and stop paying all my bills and keeping the T4's rolling as it just doesn't matter anymore. Better work on that bucket list everybody.

Have a nice day

First thing anyone could do is...sell your clunker. Upgrade your heating/insulation. Grow some food. Wake up a little.

People SHOULD be afraid to some extent...because things are going to change...especially for those who don't want things to change. In fact...they have already changed a lot...which I'd guess why we see a lot of "hysteria".

You could go back to sleep and pretend things will revert to the 50s...or try to see what's coming down the road and prepare a little.

There are some things individuals can do...depending on how much they want to get into it...but a lot of it depends on our usually incompetent...bought by corporations....leadership.

If you don't want change...you should vote for the foot draggers and retrograde who want to go back to the B*sh years. Change will still happen...it will just be more of a disaster when it is forced.

Predicting the future is not all that easy...but you can be fairly sure it's going to be different to some extent.

[takza]

OK, how about this takza. Without copy and pasting, how are you/or would recommend getting prepared? Are you doing anything about it or just trying to perpetuate fear on the net? Maybe I should go ahead and stop paying all my bills and keeping the T4's rolling as it just doesn't matter anymore. Better work on that bucket list everybody.

Have a nice day

Read this thru and THEN get back to me?

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50628