Massive landslide in my neigborhood kills some residence

[Petros]

some of you may have heard in the news of a large mud slide that crushed a number of homes and killed some people in the Arlington/Oso area of Washington state. It has lead most of the national news head lines. I live only a few miles from this place, but we and our house is safe and sound, high above the valley that is at risk of flooding. So far the sheriff has allowed me to go in and out to our house, there is concern the mud dam that formed could fail and send a lot water down the valley at once so they are restricting travel to the area except for local residences outside of the immediate slid are. There are still local residence who are unaccounted for in the disaster area, so there is a lot of concern for our neighbors.



this is a picture of the landslide area, and our home is on the side of the hill shown on the upper left side of this picture. So we are well away and well above the affected area. An image search shows some pretty dramatic pics of the damage. I know some of the people in the affect area, they have been evacuated. Although this is a rural area, there are as many as 10,000 people that live in this valley. Without a lot of roads, this area will have very limited acess until the mess is cleaned up and the roads and bridges rebuilt.

[Petros]

Another picture from the air. You can see the main river was blocked by the mudslide, and the only hwy in the area is the one on the left side of the river is completely blocked off. between the hwy and the river is an old railroad right of way which is not a bike trail, but clearly impassible for a long time to come. there were as many as 20 houses under where the landslide debries are now resting.

[Jooseppi Luna]

Wow, man, that's really scary. Are you guys living in an area that could conceivably experience the same kind of disaster? I'll be praying for you & your neighbors :-<.

[marlinh]

Wow Petros, scary situation, glad you're ok.

[Petros]

a lot of my neigbors on our hill side ask the same thing about if our hillside is stable. I believe it is so, our home is at about 500 ft above sea level and that valley is at about 200 ft, the average slope is much less than the area that slid. From out well log I know we have about 80 ft of very dense rocky silty clay known as glacial till, it is like concrete because it was compressed by an ancient glacier about 10,000 ft think of ice. under this very dense clay is 100 ft of solid black rock, and under that is our water table (where the well draws its water). Usually this kind of formation is vary stable, if it has a thick wet squishy layer on top of the rock than it is possible a deep seated slide could occur. this is what happened when a large section of Whitby island slid into Puget Sound last year (it was in national news as well, fortunately by some miracle no one was killed on that one). However the river undercuts the base of our hillside, but it is not nearly as steep nor as tall as the slope that failed. The hillside that let loose is unconsolidated sand gravel and clay, and it has a history of landslides in the past. The river undercuts the base of the slope, that was loose churned up material from earlier landslides. the clay component in the soil also not just hold moisture but also acts like a slippery lubricant, weakening the strength of the hill and once undercut by the river, a very large piece breaks off.

It seems to me this tragedy could have been avoided if the state had taken measures to stabilize this slope and protect the river bank from further erosion. It was about 3 or 4 years ago that this same hillside took out about 6 or 10 homes in the same area, so it was not like it was a surprise (many "experts" have been quoted as saying they have never seen this kind of thing before, either they are ignorant or lairs). There is a very misguided policy put in place a number of years ago by over zealous environmentalists that prevents land owners from stabilizing river banks and shore lines, you can get approval for such measures after you prove your home is at immanent risk, you do an environment impact study (very costly), and you mitigate the so-called environmental damage the stabilization measures cause. It has to go through a multi-agency review process that takes years, that usually gets denied because the reviews often do not accept the risk level that experts the owner had to hire have determined. By than it is usually too late. As a consequence most people do not bother with it, and now death has resulted form this bad policy. Hundreds of homes, many historic homes that have been along the rivers for over 100 years, have been lost in the last few years due to the rivers changing course if in uncontrolled ways.

This policy is derived from the ignorant notation that things like mud slides and river bank erosion and wandering rivers are "natural" processes, and therefore it must be good for nature. So allowing millions of tons of mud and landslide debris to wipe out a river is somehow good for the fish and their habitat. I have actually been to public hearings where state employees have testified (as if they were experts) to their theology that if man does it is "BAD", if nature does it is "good". Humans only do bad things, but nature only does good things. So if you take measures to prevent natural bank erosion and stabilize hillsides you do something bad, if you actually push mud into the river with a tractor, you also do something bad (and they put you in jail), but if nature does it, that is okay because nature is good. There have been a number of land owners who went to jail because they took their tractors in to river channels to clear up log jambs that were casing flooding and bank erosion on their property.

This means that humans and their property have been sacrificed to this environmental policy. If the state had taken measures after the first slide, and stabilized the bank and de-watered the hillside it likely would not have happened this time. It would have cost far less to stabilize the slope and river bank than the clean up and rebuilding costs that the state will have to pay now, not even consider the lost of human life. And these lost properties will not longer be contributing tax revenues to the state and county for the indefinite future. This is just irresponsible policy and a failure of the government's fiduciary responsibility to protect the citizens from a known public hazard.

I wonder if any sharp lawyers will take the state to task, and collect damages, for this policy. Frankly I would like to see those that voted for these laws go to jail for manslaughter, not very likely. But it would send a message to the law makers that they must take personal responsibility for their bad policies.

[Gottolovem]

That's awful I hope your rainy season is coming to an end And there is no more damage

[ARCHINSTL]

Without meaning to sound cold - why build on hillsides (or in valleys) where there is even the slightest chance of subsidence?

After our Great Flood of 1993 an area in St. Louis County originally known as Gumbo, from its extremely rich soil deposited by the Missouri River over millennia, was flooded completely when a dike burst. This was, until that time, primarily an agricultural area, although it also held the major secondary airport of StL, Spirit of STL. It was perhaps 7 miles by 2 or 3.
It was also prime real estate begging for development.
So - what happened?
The powers that be prevailed on various levels of government to dramatically raise and strengthen the levees to the level of a "500-year flood."
Since then, over $2B (that's billions, folks) of assorted commercial development has been built in the renamed "Chesterfield Valley."
Will it happen again? Of course. In my lifetime? Possibly.
Tom M.
EDIT - I forgot to add that the whole area was covered with 16-18 feet of water. All was lost, but at least there were no deaths or injuries, as it was sort of a 'slow-moving" flood.

[Petros]

Most of the houses have been there for 40 plus years. No one anticipated this large of a landslide I suspect. they have risen the known death toll to 8 and the number unaccounted for to 200. there was one electrician who did not even live in the area, was on a call to install a hot water heater in that neighborhood, his wife has not heard from him. Back luck to be in that area that morning. Another woman was driving through the area on her way to a job (she shoes horses) and was passing through the area right at the time of the slide at 10:47 am sat, and she never arrived at the site of the job. A contractor who also did not live in the area was driving through on his way to a job east of this site in the town of darrington, he also never arrived on the job site. So there are more than local residence missing, but the have no idea how many cars on the highway were swallowed up. 40,000 cars a day on average use that hwy.

[atoyta]

I am 2 valleys south of you at a little over 600ft. We have hard clay 3 or 4 feet under the soil so the water collects & flows on top of the clay which lubricates the soil to be slide prone. I have no issues here as I am 3 blocks from the edge of the drop into the Sultan river valley. There has been some small slides close to the valley edge an some fairly large ones near to the river.

[hberdan]

Wow!
I am glad you and your family are all ok, Peter. I survived the flood in Boulder Canyon last fall, with some minor damage to my house. Mother Nature can be a powerful force indeed.
Be very careful!
Dave

[Mattel]

Glad you are OK Petros. Such devastation in such an amazing landscapes. We have had cases in Australia where councils have used the 'environmentalist pressure' as an excuse for not clearing up and back burning undergrowth in Bushfire prone areas. Whilst in actual fact were just trying to save money and avoid expensive work. I hope that after this an effective compromise can be found in your area. It amazes me that no realtime geographical monitoring can take place of the under soil area around where people are residing to give a warning when the water level reaches a critical level that can trigger this type of landslide and therefore people be evacuated etc. That would seem like a minimum spend the local government could put in place. That before shots of that area looked like a disaster waiting to happen!

[Petros]

I actually got on a Seattle radio station this morning for 15 min since I have expertise in geotechnical engineering and I am familiar with the area. It came out today finally that not only did the USGS classify that area as unstable some 40 years ago, but after the same area slid in 2006, taking out 5 house in that exact same spot (no one was killed than), there was a study that determined this area was unstable and very dangerous. The authors were surprised they were allowing homes to be built below the slope. The radio show host asked me on the air why they allow homes to be built there, the reason is that these were legal existing lots that were created long before the hazard was known and the building department is reluctant to ban new construction on existing lots along side where other houses have been for many decades. they have been paying taxes on the sites and for the existing houses, paying a premium because of the spectacular view and it being "river front" building sites. He than asked what if people ignored the regulations and take measures to protect their properly and stabilize the slopes without permits, I told him they would put you in jail. He was incredulous there were such laws and I listed several local land owners that had cleared logs and debris that were causing the river to change direction and it started cutting away their land who went to jail. In one case, one of his "good comrade" neighbors took pictures of him removing the logs and turned it over to the sheriff, and they came and arrested him. One of the reason I wanted to get on the air is to state that now would be a good time to change these laws that criminally punish people for making their property safe. It makes people afraid to do anything about it. Even state agencies that take action will often get sued by other state agencies if they think fish will be harmed. After all the reason why these agencies exist is to protect the fish's rights to swim around fallen logs and have their habitat muddied up with mud and landslide debris. the host also wondered what was the point of having these studies done if they ignore the recommendations anyway. what is the point of paying for studies if they do nothing about?

The confirmed death toll as risen to 14 recovered bodies, and they have refined the "unaccounted for" to 176. there were close to 50 homes buried. I would suspect the final count, if they can find all of them, may end up being between 60 and 70. The whole area about one square mile has 6 to 20 feet of mud, mush, rocks, and large trees all mix up over the top of the ground. I can not see how they could know for sure if they found all of the bodies unless they remove all 2 million cubic yards.

I also heard an interview on the radio with the rescue personnel who are having a hard time recovering the crushed bodies because many are children, often found with their parents in the same collapsed house.

One small piece of good news, they freed a dog alive from one of the buried homes yesterday, giving hope there might still be people still alive under the debris that they can rescue. As each day passes with no live bodies being found, the chances of finding any survivors is becoming less likely. Finding anything alive under all that carnage, even a family pet, has a tremendous encouraging effect on the volunteers and anxious friends and family.

[CathodeRayTube]

So...your saying these people were put in jail for clearing/moving trees on there own property? what asinine law were they actually violating by doing this? something to do with disturbing the environment? permit requirements (to cut firewood on your own property)??

Sounds like the families of all these people who were crushed should be getting together and suing somebody themselves...like the local authorities for punishing people who were attempting to prevent such a disaster or whoever knew that the land was unsafe and then did nothing about it, or whoever prevented anything from being done about it...

[Gottolovem]

Back in 1983 we had a similar slide here in northern Nevada that took a few life's (nowhere near as large).
As i recall there were 1 or 2 known victims that were never recovered.
Things like this are preventable the entire thing it truly appalling

EDIT
The loss of life is preventable mother nature will do as she sees fit

[Petros]

There were four studies going back 40 years, all reported this hill was dangerous and unstable. they stopped approving logging permits in 1988 (one of the first times in fact that a logging permit was denied). The subdivision was older than this and likely there was a do what you want with your own property back than. There have been no permits for new construction on the part of the community that was closest to the unstable slope, so it is not like the building department was irresponsible. The owners do have property rights, the building department can only withhold approval when there is clear evidence of danger, and they will make the owners put a "landslide hazard warning" notice recorded on the land title so no one can say they did not know. There were also some stabilizing measures taken at the base of the slope after a big land slide in 2006, but clearly it was not enough. No one expected a slide to be this large, it covered the entire valley floor and ran up the far side of the valley and buried homes almost a mile from the base of the slope on the far side of the hwy. For even a very large slide to spread out that far is extremely rare.

Unfortunately the blame game is already starting. I have posted on those websites to stop it, and wait until the investigation is over and we have some facts. When there is nothing to report many media outlets will start irresponsibly reporting rumors and accusations, same thing happened with the Malaysian airlines tragedy. No one likes a lack of information, but that is not a reason to start blaming others without any facts.

To complicate matters when you want to improve river bank stability, anytime you disturb any soil within the banks of any creek, river or shoreline, you are subject to criminal fines if done without permits. which are only issued after doing thousands of dollars of impact studies and engineering and hydrology reports, and that can take years to get approved. So most people do not do anything out of fear, those that take action to save their property are always fined, many go to jail. I have contacted my state and county representative to tell them we need to fix that law now. The state Department of Ecology will issues fines and threaten criminal prosecution if they deem your actions may harm habitat. They will also sue local building departments if they do not think the local agency is not doing enough to protect habitat. So most building departments are fearful of this "big brother" state agency will bust their budget and take them to court. The State Department of Ecology is where all the Environmental Nazis go, unelected stooges lobby state law makers for more power and more authority (most give into it because they do not want to be falsely labeled as not caring about the environment). Now would be a good time to reign in those that abuse their authority since all of the law makers in this state will ignore their demands, and we can undo the damage these zeolts have done. They want the power to fine and criminalize land owners or other agencies from making safety improvements land considered critical habitat (and they are the soul determiner of what "critical habitat" is of course). This has got to stop, they are a rouge agency who are unaccountable and with too much power.

The confirmed death toll has risen to 24, and the number unaccounted for remains the same at 176.